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Wales — Norway, 1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC : score 2:1

match finished UEFA Nations League · Matchday 3 Thursday 1 October · 18:45 UTC
Wales Wales 3th · 3 pts LWLL
2 : 1 1st half 1:1
Norway 4th · 3 pts LLLW Norway
Cardiff City Stadium · referee A. Hernandez
Match predictionSafe

No rout: margin of two goals or fewer

91% · Wales games average 1.8 goals

Prediction landed. We predicted “No rout: margin of two goals or fewer”, and the match finished 2:1.

the market is chosen by our model: not always the obvious one, but a likely one

our forecast this is how the model saw the match before kick-off
Wales 34% draw 25% Norway 41%
The model was wrong

The most likely outcome was Norway win, and the match finished 2:1. Fans backed Norway win — they got it wrong.

fans 60 votes
Wales 29% draw 17% Norway 54%
Voting closed at kick-off

Match events

full timeline
O. Bobb assist: M. Odegaard 0-1 11'
J. James 37'
D. James assist: S. Thomas 1-1 38'
T. Heggem 46'
N. Williams 2-1 48'
S. Thomas 90+3'
M. Odegaard 90+3'
E. Ampadu 90+3'

Line-ups

starting eleven and bench
Wales Wales 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 Norway Norway
12 Danny Ward
3 Neco Williams 6 Ben Cabango 4 Ben Davies 15 Jay DaSilva
17 Jordan James 5 Ethan Ampadu
20 Daniel James 10 Liam Cullen 19 Sorba Thomas
9 Lewis Koumas
22 Oscar Bobb 9 Erling Haaland 21 Andreas Schjelderup
10 Martin Ødegaard 8 Sander Berge 7 Fredrik Aursnes
14 Julian Ryerson 3 Kristoffer Ajer 17 Torbjørn Heggem 5 David Møller Wolfe
1 Ørjan Nyland
Wales bench
  1. 11Brennan Johnson
  2. 2Chris Mepham
  3. 7Cian Ashford
  4. 14Connor Roberts
  5. 1David Cornell
  6. 23Joel Colwill
  7. 22Josh Sheehan
  8. 13Kieffer Moore
  9. 18Mark Harris
  10. 16Rhys Norrington-Davies
  11. 21Tom King
  12. 8Wes Burns
Norway bench
  1. 20Antonio Nusa
  2. 13Egil Selvik
  3. 23Erik Botheim
  4. 5Fredrik Sjøvold
  5. 11Jørgen Strand Larsen
  6. 4Leo Østigård
  7. 16Marcus Pedersen
  8. 2Odin Luras Bjørtuft
  9. 15Ole Didrik Blomberg
  10. 6Patrick Berg
  11. 12Sander Tangvik
  12. 19Thelo Aasgaard

Match stats

21 metrics for the full match
50%Possession50%
12Shots12
6Shots on target4
5Shots off target3
1Blocked shots5
7Shots inside box7
5Shots outside box5
100Attacks90
60Dangerous attacks43
3Corners3
3Offsides0
11Fouls7
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
3Saves4
520Passes519
466Accurate passes458
0Free kicks0
0Throw-ins0
0Goal kicks0
0Penalties0
WalesWalesNorwayNorwayThe source gives no per-half split — only totals for the match

How the match went

text generated from our data

Wales and Norway met on matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League on 1 October at Cardiff City Stadium. Final score — 2:1.

Wales sit 3th on 3 points after 4 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses). Norway sit 4th on 3 points after 4 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses), winless in 3 matches.

Season form

all competitions of the season
Wales Wales last five Norway Norway
LWLL form LLLW
4 Matches 4
1 — 0 — 3 Wins — draws — defeats 1 — 0 — 3
2 — 5 Scored — conceded 6 — 8
0.75 Points per game 0.75
0.5 Goals scored per game 1.5
0 Clean sheets 0
3 Failed to score 0
winless in 1 Current streak winless in 3

Wales at home: 2 matches, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, goals 2—2, 1.5 points per match.

Norway away: 2 matches, 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, goals 2—4, 0 points per match.