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Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen, 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC : score 3:4

match finished Bundesliga · Matchday 5 Saturday 10 October · 13:30 UTC
Mewa Arena · referee M. Burda
Match predictionValue

Over 1.5 goals

88% · Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 Bayer Leverkusen games

Prediction landed. We predicted “Over 1.5 goals”, and the match finished 3:4.

the market is chosen by our model: not always the obvious one, but a likely one

our forecast this is how the model saw the match before kick-off
Mainz 05 30% draw 22% Bayer Leverkusen 48%
The model was right

The most likely outcome was Bayer Leverkusen win, and the match finished 3:4. Fans backed Bayer Leverkusen win — they got it right.

fans 47 votes
Mainz 05 27% draw 15% Bayer Leverkusen 58%
Voting closed at kick-off

Match events

full timeline
R. Andrich 0-1 5'
P. Schick assist: A. Garcia 0-2 9'
P. Tietz 20'
A. Caci 1-2 33'
S. Becker 35'
A. Caci assist: N. Amiri 2-2 42'
J. Quansah 2-3 55'
M. Diaby assist: A. Moreira 2-4 65'
M. Terrier for I. Maza 66'
R. Konigsdorffer for K. Potulski 70'
D. da Costa for A. Caci 70'
Lee Jae-Sung for E. Martel 70'
M. Tillman for M. Diaby 75'
N. Tella for A. Moreira 75'
Lee Jae-Sung 76'
B. Hollerbach for S. Becker 77'
L. Maloney for K. Sano 81'
J. Hofmann for P. Schick 83'
E. Fernandez for A. Garcia 84'
B. Hollerbach 3-4 90+2'
J. Quansah 90+3'

Line-ups

starting eleven and bench
Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
1 Alexander Schwolow
4 Stefan Posch 3 Fabio Gruber 48 Kacper Potulski
19 Anthony Caci 5 Eric Martel 6 Kaishu Sano 10 Nadiem Amiri 2 Phillipp Mwene
9 Phillip Tietz 23 Sheraldo Becker
14 Patrik Schick
19 Moussa Diaby 30 Ibrahim Maza 9 Afonso Moreira
8 Robert Andrich 24 Aleix García
4 Jarell Quansah 12 Edmond Tapsoba 2 Facundo Medina 3 Miguel Gutiérrez
1 Mark Flekken
Mainz 05 bench
  1. 17Benedict Hollerbach
  2. 21Danny da Costa
  3. 7Jae-sung Lee
  4. 15Lennard Maloney
  5. 40Maximilian Kinzig
  6. 47Rael Nakuzola
  7. 11Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer
  8. 24Sota Kawasaki
  9. 16Stefan Bell
Bayer Leverkusen bench
  1. 6Ezequiel Fernández
  2. 28Janis Blaswich
  3. 7Jonas Hofmann
  4. 5Loïc Badé
  5. 17Lucas Vázquez
  6. 10Malik Tillman
  7. 11Martin Terrier
  8. 23Nathan Tella
  9. 22Victor Okoh Boniface

Match stats

20 metrics for the full match
47%Possession53%
23Shots16
5Shots on target7
11Shots off target6
7Blocked shots3
17Shots inside box12
6Shots outside box4
99Attacks97
62Dangerous attacks49
4Corners3
0Offsides1
11Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
3Saves1
442Passes508
367Accurate passes433
0Free kicks0
0Throw-ins0
0Goal kicks0
0Penalties0
Mainz 05Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBayer LeverkusenThe source gives no per-half split — only totals for the match

How the match went

text generated from our data

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen met on matchday 5 of the Bundesliga on 10 October at Mewa Arena. Final score — 3:4.

Mainz 05 sit 8th on 7 points after 6 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), 3 matches without conceding. Bayer Leverkusen sit 4th on 10 points after 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), unbeaten in 5 matches.

Of the last 2 meetings Mainz 05 won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 1, with 1 more meeting drawn. Aggregate score — 4:5.

Season form

all competitions of the season
Mainz 05 Mainz 05 last five Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
WLWLW form WWWDW
6 Matches 6
3 — 1 — 2 Wins — draws — defeats 4 — 1 — 1
14 — 10 Scored — conceded 16 — 9
1.67 Points per game 2.17
2.33 Goals scored per game 2.67
3 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 0
unbeaten in 1 Current streak unbeaten in 5

Mainz 05 at home: 3 matches, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, goals 4—7, 0.33 points per match.

Bayer Leverkusen away: 3 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, goals 8—8, 1.33 points per match.

Head-to-head

2 matches in our database
0 Mainz 05 wins 1 draw 1 Bayer Leverkusen win goals 4:5 Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen
28/02/2026 Bayer Leverkusen — Mainz 05 1:1 Bundesliga
18/10/2025 Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4 Bundesliga

League table

after the match
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Bayern MünchenBayern München532016—411
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen531114—810
5Mainz 05Mainz 05631214—1010
6ElversbergElversberg631212—1110
7RB LeipzigRB Leipzig530215—59
8Werder BremenWerder Bremen623112—129
Full Bundesliga table