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Italy — Belgium, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC : score 0:2

match finished UEFA Nations League · Matchday 1 Friday 25 September · 18:45 UTC
Italy Italy 3th · 3 pts WDWL
0 : 2 1st half 0:1
Belgium 2th · 3 pts LWLW Belgium
Stadio Olimpico · referee D. Siebert
Match predictionSafe

Belgium +2.5

92% · Belgium games average 1.5 goals

Prediction landed. We predicted “Belgium +2.5”, and the match finished 0:2.

the market is chosen by our model: not always the obvious one, but a likely one

our forecast this is how the model saw the match before kick-off
Italy 45% draw 23% Belgium 32%
The model was wrong

The most likely outcome was Italy win, and the match finished 0:2. Fans backed Italy win — they got it wrong.

fans 39 votes
Italy 56% draw 17% Belgium 27%
Voting closed at kick-off

Match events

full timeline
M. Godts assist: K. De Bruyne 0-1 20'
N. Raskin 25'
D. Moreira 29'
G. Mancini 63'
D. Lukebakio assist: C. De Ketelaere 0-2 69'
R. Lavia 80'
M. Fernandez-Pardo 89'
D. Maldini 90+1'
G. Donnarumma 90+4'
R. Lukaku 90+4'

Line-ups

starting eleven and bench
Italy Italy 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · Rudi Garcia Belgium Belgium
1 Gianluigi Donnarumma
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo 23 Gianluca Mancini 6 Diego Coppola 5 Riccardo Calafiori
18 Nicolò Barella 4 Alessandro Romano 8 Sandro Tonali
9 Moise Kean 7 Pio Esposito 21 Nicolò Cambiaghi
17 Charles De Ketelaere
19 Diego Moreira 7 Kevin De Bruyne 10 Mika Godts
23 Nicolas Raskin 8 Youri Tielemans
21 Timothy Castagne 15 Nathan Ngoy 4 Brandon Mechele 5 Maxim De Cuyper
1 Senne Lammens
Italy bench
  1. 20Daniel Maldini
  2. 16Davide Frattesi
  3. 10Giacomo Raspadori
  4. 11Gianluca Scamacca
  5. 19Giorgio Scalvini
  6. 14Guglielmo Vicario
  7. 3Honest Ahanor
  8. 15Issa Doumbia
  9. 12Marco Carnesecchi
  10. 2Michael Kayode
  11. 17Mohamed Ali Zoma
  12. 13Rolando Mandragora
Belgium bench
  1. 3Arthur Theate
  2. 14Dodi Lukebakio
  3. 20Hans Vanaken
  4. 13Jari De Busser
  5. 18Joaquin Seys
  6. 11Loïs Openda
  7. 12Maarten Vandevoordt
  8. 16Mandela Keita
  9. 22Matías Fernández-Pardo
  10. 9Romelu Lukaku
  11. 6Roméo Lavia
  12. 2Zeno Debast

Match stats

20 metrics for the full match
56%Possession44%
21Shots19
6Shots on target8
10Shots off target5
5Blocked shots6
14Shots inside box11
7Shots outside box8
127Attacks73
66Dangerous attacks40
4Corners8
1Offsides0
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards5
6Saves6
590Passes464
539Accurate passes408
0Free kicks0
0Throw-ins0
0Goal kicks0
0Penalties0
ItalyItalyBelgiumBelgiumThe source gives no per-half split — only totals for the match

How the match went

text generated from our data

Italy and Belgium met on matchday 1 of the UEFA Nations League on 25 September at Stadio Olimpico. Final score — 0:2.

Italy sit 3th on 3 points after 4 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), unbeaten in 3 matches. Belgium sit 2th on 3 points after 4 matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses).

Of the last 2 meetings Italy won 1, Belgium won 0, with 1 more meeting drawn. Aggregate score — 3:2.

Season form

all competitions of the season
Italy Italy last five Belgium Belgium
WDWL form LWLW
4 Matches 4
2 — 1 — 1 Wins — draws — defeats 2 — 0 — 2
8 — 5 Scored — conceded 6 — 5
1.75 Points per game 1.5
2 Goals scored per game 1.5
0 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 1
unbeaten in 3 Current streak winless in 1

Italy at home: 2 matches, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, goals 3—3, 1.5 points per match.

Belgium away: 2 matches, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, goals 3—4, 1.5 points per match.

Head-to-head

2 matches in our database
1 Italy win 1 draw 0 Belgium wins goals 3:2 Italy — Belgium
14/11/2024 Belgium — Italy 0:1 UEFA Nations League
10/10/2024 Italy — Belgium 2:2 UEFA Nations League