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Iceland — Estonia, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC : score 1:1

match finished UEFA Nations League · Matchday 1 Saturday 26 September · 16:00 UTC
Iceland Iceland 1th · 4 pts DWWD
1 : 1 1st half 1:0
Estonia 3th · 2 pts DWDD Estonia
venue to be confirmed · referee M. Milanovic
Match predictionBold

Goals, but not too many: one to four

84%

Prediction landed. We predicted “Goals, but not too many: one to four”, and the match finished 1:1.

the market is chosen by our model: not always the obvious one, but a likely one

our forecast this is how the model saw the match before kick-off
Iceland 43% draw 25% Estonia 32%
The model was wrong

The most likely outcome was Iceland win, and the match finished 1:1. Fans backed Iceland win — they got it wrong.

fans 60 votes
Iceland 58% draw 13% Estonia 29%
Voting closed at kick-off

Match events

full timeline
I. Thorvaldsson for A. Gudmundsson 30'
A. Gudjohnsen assist: H. Haraldsson 1-0 45'
K. Mets 54'
P. Kristal for M. Ainsalu 61'
M. Paskotsi assist: R. Peetson 1-1 64'
A. Sigurdsson for J. Thorsteinsson 75'
G. Sigurdsson for I. Johannesson 75'
A. Tamm for K. Mustmaa 78'
R. Peetson 81'
S. T. Thordarson 84'
L. Tomasson for M. E. Ellertsson 84'
K. M. Ingason for A. Gudjohnsen 85'
M. Soomets for M. Kait 86'

Line-ups

starting eleven and bench
Iceland Iceland 4-4-2 5-3-2 Estonia Estonia
12 Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson
4 Victor Pálsson 16 Stefán Teitur Þórðarson 3 Daníel Grétarsson 19 Mikael Ellertsson
20 Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson 7 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson 8 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 11 Albert Guðmundsson
22 Andri Guðjohnsen 9 Orri Óskarsson
11 Mihkel Ainsalu 9 Karel Mustmaa
10 Kevor Palumets 20 Markus Poom 4 Mattias Käit
6 Rasmus Peetson 3 Maksim Paskotsi 2 Märten Kuusk 18 Karol Mets 19 Michael Schjønning-Larsen
1 Karl Hein
Iceland bench
  1. 6Andri Fannar Baldursson
  2. 13Anton Ari Einarsson
  3. 21Arnór Sigurðsson
  4. 17Aron Gunnarsson
  5. 14Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
  6. 10Gylfi Sigurðsson
  7. 23Hörður Magnússon
  8. 15Kristall Máni Ingason
  9. 2Logi Tomasson
  10. 18Mikael Anderson
  11. 1Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson
  12. 5Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson
Estonia bench
  1. 16Alex Matthias Tamm
  2. 5Erko Tõugjas
  3. 23Frank Liivak
  4. 13Joseph Saliste
  5. 22Karl Andre Vallner
  6. 15Maksimilian Skvortsov
  7. 8Markus Soomets
  8. 17Martin Miller
  9. 21Mattias Männilaan
  10. 12Matvei Igonen
  11. 14Patrik Kristal
  12. 7Robi Saarma

Match stats

20 metrics for the full match
63%Possession37%
19Shots8
8Shots on target5
7Shots off target3
4Blocked shots0
13Shots inside box5
6Shots outside box3
117Attacks50
69Dangerous attacks27
7Corners3
3Offsides0
13Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
4Saves7
538Passes313
460Accurate passes218
0Free kicks0
0Throw-ins0
0Goal kicks0
0Penalties1
IcelandIcelandEstoniaEstoniaThe source gives no per-half split — only totals for the match

How the match went

text generated from our data

Iceland and Estonia met on matchday 1 of the UEFA Nations League on 26 September. Final score — 1:1.

Iceland sit 1th on 4 points after 4 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), unbeaten in 4 matches, 3 matches without conceding. Estonia sit 3th on 2 points after 4 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses), unbeaten in 4 matches, 3 matches without conceding.

Season form

all competitions of the season
Iceland Iceland last five Estonia Estonia
DWWD form DWDD
4 Matches 4
2 — 2 — 0 Wins — draws — defeats 1 — 3 — 0
7 — 1 Scored — conceded 2 — 1
2 Points per game 1.5
1.75 Goals scored per game 0.5
3 Clean sheets 3
1 Failed to score 2
unbeaten in 4 Current streak unbeaten in 4

Iceland at home: 2 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, goals 4—1, 2 points per match.

Estonia away: 2 matches, 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, goals 1—1, 1 points per match.