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France — Italy, 2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC : score 1:1

match finished UEFA Nations League · Matchday 3 Friday 2 October · 18:45 UTC
France France 1th · 10 pts WDWW
1 : 1 1st half 0:0
Italy 2th · 7 pts WDWL Italy
Stade de France · referee J. Manzano
Match predictionSafe

Italy +2.5

91% · Italy games average 3.3 goals

Prediction landed. We predicted “Italy +2.5”, and the match finished 1:1.

the market is chosen by our model: not always the obvious one, but a likely one

our forecast this is how the model saw the match before kick-off
France 44% draw 23% Italy 33%
The model was wrong

The most likely outcome was France win, and the match finished 1:1. Fans backed France win — they got it wrong.

fans 47 votes
France 53% draw 16% Italy 31%
Voting closed at kick-off

Match events

full timeline
N. Fagioli 54'
M. Olise assist: R. Cherki 1-0 55'
A. Bastoni 1-1 68'
D. Upamecano 73'
M. Kean 73'
A. Vergara 82'
D. Upamecano 85'
D. Upamecano 85'
A. Bastoni 90+2'

Line-ups

starting eleven and bench
France France 4-3-3 4-3-3 Italy Italy
16 Mike Maignan
2 Pierre Kalulu 22 Jérémy Jacquet 4 Dayot Upamecano 3 Adrien Truffert
9 Rayan Cherki 21 Lucas Da Cunha 14 Adrien Rabiot
11 Michael Olise 7 Ousmane Dembélé 20 Désiré Doué
20 Sebastiano Esposito 7 Pio Esposito 9 Moise Kean
16 Davide Frattesi 8 Sandro Tonali 10 Nicolò Fagioli
2 Michael Kayode 19 Giorgio Scalvini 6 Alessandro Bastoni 5 Riccardo Calafiori
1 Gianluigi Donnarumma
France bench
  1. 13Andy Diouf
  2. 12Bradley Barcola
  3. 6Eduardo Camavinga
  4. 19Esteban Lepaul
  5. 1Guillaume Restes
  6. 23Jean Butez
  7. 5Jules Koundé
  8. 15Leny Yoro
  9. 18Maghnes Akliouche
  10. 8Manu Koné
  11. 17Maxence Lacroix
Italy bench
  1. 21Antonio Vergara
  2. 17Daniel Maldini
  3. 23Gianluca Mancini
  4. 11Gianluca Scamacca
  5. 22Giovanni Di Lorenzo
  6. 13Guglielmo Vicario
  7. 15Issa Doumbia
  8. 12Marco Carnesecchi
  9. 3Matteo Ruggeri
  10. 14Mohamed Ali Zoma
  11. 18Nicolò Barella
  12. 4Samuele Ricci

Match stats

21 metrics for the full match
65%Possession35%
18Shots14
8Shots on target2
4Shots off target6
6Blocked shots6
8Shots inside box10
10Shots outside box4
140Attacks49
78Dangerous attacks22
6Corners4
1Offsides3
9Fouls10
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0
1Saves7
725Passes391
669Accurate passes330
0Free kicks0
0Throw-ins0
0Goal kicks0
0Penalties0
FranceFranceItalyItalyThe source gives no per-half split — only totals for the match

How the match went

text generated from our data

France and Italy met on matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League on 2 October at Stade de France. Final score — 1:1.

France sit 1th on 10 points after 4 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), unbeaten in 4 matches. Italy sit 2th on 7 points after 4 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), unbeaten in 3 matches.

Of the last 2 meetings France won 1, Italy won 1. Aggregate score — 4:4.

Season form

all competitions of the season
France France last five Italy Italy
WDWW form WDWL
4 Matches 4
3 — 1 — 0 Wins — draws — defeats 2 — 1 — 1
7 — 2 Scored — conceded 8 — 5
2.5 Points per game 1.75
1.75 Goals scored per game 2
2 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 1
unbeaten in 4 Current streak unbeaten in 3

France at home: 2 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, goals 5—2, 2 points per match.

Italy away: 2 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, goals 5—2, 2 points per match.

Head-to-head

2 matches in our database
1 France win 0 draws 1 Italy win goals 4:4 France — Italy
17/11/2024 Italy — France 1:3 UEFA Nations League
06/09/2024 France — Italy 1:3 UEFA Nations League