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Estonia — Luxembourg, 3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC : score 1:0

match finished UEFA Nations League · Matchday 3 Saturday 3 October · 16:00 UTC
Estonia Estonia 2th · 6 pts DWDD
1 : 0 1st half 1:0
Luxembourg 4th · 3 pts LLLW Luxembourg
A. Le Coq Arena · referee P. Raczkowski
Match predictionBold

Winning margin of one goal or fewer

83% · Estonia are unbeaten in 4 games

Prediction landed. We predicted “Winning margin of one goal or fewer”, and the match finished 1:0.

the market is chosen by our model: not always the obvious one, but a likely one

our forecast this is how the model saw the match before kick-off
Estonia 31% draw 33% Luxembourg 36%
The model was wrong

The most likely outcome was Luxembourg win, and the match finished 1:0. Fans backed Luxembourg win — they got it wrong.

fans 39 votes
Estonia 24% draw 22% Luxembourg 54%
Voting closed at kick-off

Match events

full timeline
R. Peetson 1-0 5'
E. Mahmutovic 29'
J. Henn 44'
H. Kadamani for A. Dardari 62'
S. Thill for E. Duarte 62'
K. Mustmaa for M. Mannilaan 66'
O. Natami 68'
M. Soomets for K. Palumets 72'
M. Kuusk 73'
T. Rupil for V. Thill 73'
V. Selimovic 78'
M. Ainsalu for M. Kait 80'
K. Mets 82'
M. Olesen for F. Bohnert 83'
E. Dzogovic for E. Mahmutovic 83'
L. Barreiro 84'
E. Dzogovic 85'
M. Olesen 87'
M. Poom 88'

Line-ups

starting eleven and bench
Estonia Estonia 3-5-1-1 4-1-4-1 Luxembourg Luxembourg
12 Matvei Igonen
3 Maksim Paskotsi 2 Märten Kuusk 18 Karol Mets
6 Rasmus Peetson 10 Kevor Palumets 20 Markus Poom 4 Mattias Käit 19 Michael Schjønning-Larsen
14 Patrik Kristal
17 Mattias Männilaan
9 Jayson Videira Pereira
15 Omar Natami 11 Vincent Thill 8 Enzo Duarte 7 Aiman Dardari
6 Tomas de Sousa Moreira
4 Florian Bohnert 3 Enes Mahmutović 5 Vahid Selimović 13 Dirk Carlson
1 Anthony Moris
Estonia bench
  1. 21Alex Matthias Tamm
  2. 5Erko Tõugjas
  3. 23Frank Liivak
  4. 16Joonas Tamm
  5. 13Joseph Saliste
  6. 9Karel Mustmaa
  7. 22Karl Andre Vallner
  8. 1Karl Hein
  9. 15Maksimilian Skvortsov
  10. 8Markus Soomets
  11. 11Mihkel Ainsalu
  12. 7Robi Saarma
Luxembourg bench
  1. 2Eldin Džogović
  2. 14Eric Veiga
  3. 17Hamza Kadamani
  4. 16Leandro Barreiro
  5. 22Marvin Martins
  6. 19Mathias Olesen
  7. 20Miguel Fernandes Gonçalves
  8. 21Sebastien Thill
  9. 18Sofiane Ikene
  10. 12Tiago Pereira Cardoso
  11. 23Tim Kips
  12. 10Timothé Rupil

Match stats

20 metrics for the full match
46%Possession54%
14Shots8
9Shots on target2
1Shots off target4
4Blocked shots2
10Shots inside box4
4Shots outside box4
72Attacks97
25Dangerous attacks45
7Corners3
4Offsides2
13Fouls12
3Yellow cards6
2Saves8
446Passes529
394Accurate passes479
0Free kicks0
0Throw-ins0
0Goal kicks0
0Penalties0
EstoniaEstoniaLuxembourgLuxembourgThe source gives no per-half split — only totals for the match

How the match went

text generated from our data

Estonia and Luxembourg met on matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League on 3 October at A. Le Coq Arena. Final score — 1:0.

Estonia sit 2th on 6 points after 4 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses), unbeaten in 4 matches, 3 matches without conceding. Luxembourg sit 4th on 3 points after 4 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses), winless in 3 matches.

Season form

all competitions of the season
Estonia Estonia last five Luxembourg Luxembourg
DWDD form LLLW
4 Matches 4
1 — 3 — 0 Wins — draws — defeats 1 — 0 — 3
2 — 1 Scored — conceded 2 — 7
1.5 Points per game 0.75
0.5 Goals scored per game 0.5
3 Clean sheets 0
2 Failed to score 3
unbeaten in 4 Current streak winless in 3

Estonia at home: 2 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, goals 1—0, 2 points per match.

Luxembourg away: 2 matches, 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, goals 2—2, 1.5 points per match.